“The Great Depression: A Diary” is a great day by day first person account of someone living through the depression. It’s a great reminder how we don’t have a monopoly on insane politics
I read this more than 10 years ago, so I don't remember a lot, but I do appreciate it for being the only account of the crash that doesn't have historical hindsight. It was interesting to hear someone trying to make sense of things on a near daily basis during the fog of uncertainty. It makes me want to find other such accounts of historical events without the inevitable-seeming cause and effect sequence of events you normally read about history.
> Andrew Ross Sorkin’s history of the 1929 stock market crash reminds us that financial bubbles are inevitable—and that another one may be about to pop.
He's made a lot of predictions: Apple will acquire Disney (recent), Microsoft will acquire Yahoo (mid 2000s), we'd have a "hard landing" in 2023/2024. None of these have turned out true. It's especially hard to meaningfully evaluate claims of crashes.
Well, if I remember correctly Microsoft was very close to acquire Yahoo.
So it means it made sense to do it. Even if you correctly predict the economic, political currents, sometimes it is up to the actions of individuals that are very hard to predict.
Even if there was a 29 style crash, assuming you can hold for 20 or so years, less than the length of most home mortgages, you would still come out ahead. Not that it wouldn’t be painful for seniors and those who are middle age and not well diversified, but it’s hard to not see a US crash as a buying opportunity for international capital.
Most people who have significant savings in the stock market don't have the lifespan to ride out a 25 year recovery cycle. And those young enough to have the time usually don't have much in savings yet.
I guess it depends what you call "significant". I am 40 and have over 200k in my 401k, which I think is significant. And I could most likely expect to live 25 more years. If there's a crash tomorrow, my money wouldn't grow the way I am hoping it will over that time, but I should come out ok considering that I will be getting discount stocks while the market recovers.
A 29 style crash would be accompanied by a 29 crash in other countries. Besides most countries (besides Argentine) suffered, some more some less. The US market wouldn't necessarily be a bigger bargain than others.
A 1929-style crash was accompanied by mass unemployment (~25%), meaning people were often forced to sell at the bottom precisely because they had no income. You can't "hold" if you're selling assets to eat. Also just because it recovered in the past doesn't mean it'll follow the same trajectory in the future.
right. And because we know of the crashes of 2022, 2008, 2001, etc. the market is showing a lot more resiliency. Which is good, but it will take longer to have a correction. Which may be bad by itself.
Stabilizing from those crashes were all about the injecting liquidity and faith and credit in the US Treasury. Hoover didn’t handle the events subsequent to 1929 well, but more out of ignorance than malice.
In 2026, the POTUS, his family and friends are looting the treasury with brazen acts of fraud. The government is buying losing futures contracts to manipulate oil and other markets, and “mysterious people” are buying securities before scheduled, secret events to profit from it.
The US assassinated the leaders of a hostile power after they essentially gave in to our demands.
We eliminated the governments experts in a variety of strategic topics including oil, and installed toadies to run the fiscal service that disburses government funds.
People are working on undermining the FDIC and decapitating social security.
So a crash now is really disturbing. Nobody can have the level of confidence in the faith and credit of the United States as we did in 2008. The people who understand the complex issues have been purged by the government, and the rest of the leadership is complicit in criminality and is counting on loyalty to secure pardons for later. So you should be anxious.
I definitely don't think it's a case of more market resiliency but rather a case of central banks willing to act much more aggressively to respond to these things. This is often what Ben Bernanke argues, given he wrote his thesis on the '29 crash, and how he handled the '08 crisis.
I hope not, my parents were teenagers at the time, my fathers life was terrible back then, he had to join the CCC to survive and to help out his family.
He had told me working with the CCC was not a bed of roses and he saw many terrible accidents to some of the workers. But he was glad it existed.
Also, back then, I believe people were on average stronger and more resilient people alive today. Having such a crash will be far worse for society then 1929.
Yes, nothing in recent history gives me any faith that we'll all pull together in the face of economic hardship - as opposed to letting charlatan politicians put all the blame on already marginalized scapegoats.
“ I believe people were on average stronger and more resilient people alive today”
People step up very quickly once they have to face a difficult situation. A while ago I talked to Ukrainian about their war. He said some years ago he couldn’t have imagined living in a war zone but once it gets started you get used very quickly to drones flying over you, buildings in your town bring blown up, losing power for days, hiding in the basement. It very quickly becomes normality.
> People step up very quickly once they have to face a difficult situation.
You have to have people that can step up: at least in the US, I do not see evidence of that. Not in the White House, not at the SEC, not in Treasury and Commerce.
The most recent cataclysmic event (GFC/2008) at least had smart people around: Bernanke happened to be in charge and he was once of the foremost experts in the Great Depression. Paulson also had notable experience before Treasury. Who do we have now?
More people back then knew how to survive by growing their own food, making (and mending) their own clothes, etc. Many were only a generation or two away from farm living where those kinds of skills were just part of every day existence.
You sound like an old curmudgeon. Give me my avocado toast and exotic coffee carefully prepared in a French press and I can supervise other people clearing trails all day long (via Zoom--we're never so desperate as to need unnecessary sun exposure). Of course, I need my rebalancing hours of yoga in the morning and afternoon and personal time to ensure work-life balance.
But you may have misunderstood something I failed to bring across. Most people in in my generation, including me will have just as a bad time as yours should that crash occurs.
The only difference is my generation will only endure it for a much shorter time than yours.
FWIW, I hate everything avocado, but I will miss my bagels with cream cheese and hot chocolate with whole dairy whipped cream on top :)
Reminder that we'll never see another crash like this as long as we're off the gold standard (unless the government lets it happen). We'll see recessions and depressions, but never a big sudden "crash".
However, we could end up back on a qusi-"gold" standard if people start buying stocks using crypto (something not pegged to the dollar) directly, or even tokenized assets (such as gold in a bank vault, owned via an NFT). (Neither of these are really technically possible and maybe not permitted legally yet)
We could also see the government intentionally crash the stock market (or accept a crash as a trade-off for some benefit elsewhere in the economy) as Volcker did by raising interest rates in the early 1980s.
But I wouldn't count on either of those happening. We're going to see more private equitization and the public stock market will just shrink (or inflate slower than everything else) until it reaches a new equilibrium.
“The Great Depression: A Diary” is a great day by day first person account of someone living through the depression. It’s a great reminder how we don’t have a monopoly on insane politics
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/6601224-the-great-depres...
I read this more than 10 years ago, so I don't remember a lot, but I do appreciate it for being the only account of the crash that doesn't have historical hindsight. It was interesting to hear someone trying to make sense of things on a near daily basis during the fog of uncertainty. It makes me want to find other such accounts of historical events without the inevitable-seeming cause and effect sequence of events you normally read about history.
> Andrew Ross Sorkin’s history of the 1929 stock market crash reminds us that financial bubbles are inevitable—and that another one may be about to pop.
https://archive.ph/GQeez
He's made a lot of predictions: Apple will acquire Disney (recent), Microsoft will acquire Yahoo (mid 2000s), we'd have a "hard landing" in 2023/2024. None of these have turned out true. It's especially hard to meaningfully evaluate claims of crashes.
Well, if I remember correctly Microsoft was very close to acquire Yahoo.
So it means it made sense to do it. Even if you correctly predict the economic, political currents, sometimes it is up to the actions of individuals that are very hard to predict.
Even if there was a 29 style crash, assuming you can hold for 20 or so years, less than the length of most home mortgages, you would still come out ahead. Not that it wouldn’t be painful for seniors and those who are middle age and not well diversified, but it’s hard to not see a US crash as a buying opportunity for international capital.
It went down 89% Between 1929 And 1932, it took 25 years to close above 400 again. https://denisgobo.blogspot.com/2008/12/how-long-did-it-take-... Of course with Dollar-Cost Averaging you will be buying at the low until as well
Most people who have significant savings in the stock market don't have the lifespan to ride out a 25 year recovery cycle. And those young enough to have the time usually don't have much in savings yet.
I guess it depends what you call "significant". I am 40 and have over 200k in my 401k, which I think is significant. And I could most likely expect to live 25 more years. If there's a crash tomorrow, my money wouldn't grow the way I am hoping it will over that time, but I should come out ok considering that I will be getting discount stocks while the market recovers.
A 29 style crash would be accompanied by a 29 crash in other countries. Besides most countries (besides Argentine) suffered, some more some less. The US market wouldn't necessarily be a bigger bargain than others.
That’s a phenomenally unhelpful take.
A 1929-style crash was accompanied by mass unemployment (~25%), meaning people were often forced to sell at the bottom precisely because they had no income. You can't "hold" if you're selling assets to eat. Also just because it recovered in the past doesn't mean it'll follow the same trajectory in the future.
[delayed]
Because we know of the '29 crash, the next one will always be different. Arguably the GFC was way worse, but way different.
right. And because we know of the crashes of 2022, 2008, 2001, etc. the market is showing a lot more resiliency. Which is good, but it will take longer to have a correction. Which may be bad by itself.
Stabilizing from those crashes were all about the injecting liquidity and faith and credit in the US Treasury. Hoover didn’t handle the events subsequent to 1929 well, but more out of ignorance than malice.
In 2026, the POTUS, his family and friends are looting the treasury with brazen acts of fraud. The government is buying losing futures contracts to manipulate oil and other markets, and “mysterious people” are buying securities before scheduled, secret events to profit from it.
The US assassinated the leaders of a hostile power after they essentially gave in to our demands.
We eliminated the governments experts in a variety of strategic topics including oil, and installed toadies to run the fiscal service that disburses government funds.
People are working on undermining the FDIC and decapitating social security.
So a crash now is really disturbing. Nobody can have the level of confidence in the faith and credit of the United States as we did in 2008. The people who understand the complex issues have been purged by the government, and the rest of the leadership is complicit in criminality and is counting on loyalty to secure pardons for later. So you should be anxious.
I definitely don't think it's a case of more market resiliency but rather a case of central banks willing to act much more aggressively to respond to these things. This is often what Ben Bernanke argues, given he wrote his thesis on the '29 crash, and how he handled the '08 crisis.
Yes, Trump knows about the crashes of 2022, 2008, 2001, he will make good choices. :)
It is a pretty good book, but when I got, I personally hoped for more finance in it. A large fraction of the book is devoted to people.
We may see it again soon
I hope not, my parents were teenagers at the time, my fathers life was terrible back then, he had to join the CCC to survive and to help out his family.
He had told me working with the CCC was not a bed of roses and he saw many terrible accidents to some of the workers. But he was glad it existed.
Also, back then, I believe people were on average stronger and more resilient people alive today. Having such a crash will be far worse for society then 1929.
Yes, nothing in recent history gives me any faith that we'll all pull together in the face of economic hardship - as opposed to letting charlatan politicians put all the blame on already marginalized scapegoats.
“ I believe people were on average stronger and more resilient people alive today”
People step up very quickly once they have to face a difficult situation. A while ago I talked to Ukrainian about their war. He said some years ago he couldn’t have imagined living in a war zone but once it gets started you get used very quickly to drones flying over you, buildings in your town bring blown up, losing power for days, hiding in the basement. It very quickly becomes normality.
> People step up very quickly once they have to face a difficult situation.
You have to have people that can step up: at least in the US, I do not see evidence of that. Not in the White House, not at the SEC, not in Treasury and Commerce.
The most recent cataclysmic event (GFC/2008) at least had smart people around: Bernanke happened to be in charge and he was once of the foremost experts in the Great Depression. Paulson also had notable experience before Treasury. Who do we have now?
Some do, others sit down and cry until they die. Read “Deep Survival “ to get inside the heads of people going through severe hardship.
More people back then knew how to survive by growing their own food, making (and mending) their own clothes, etc. Many were only a generation or two away from farm living where those kinds of skills were just part of every day existence.
Today I learned about the Civilian Conservation Corps. (CCC)
Pardon my ignorance, but what’s CCC?
That's a fun one because none of three ones listed on Wikipedia stand out.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CCC?#Politics
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilian_Conservation_Corps
You sound like an old curmudgeon. Give me my avocado toast and exotic coffee carefully prepared in a French press and I can supervise other people clearing trails all day long (via Zoom--we're never so desperate as to need unnecessary sun exposure). Of course, I need my rebalancing hours of yoga in the morning and afternoon and personal time to ensure work-life balance.
I loved your post, it made me chuckle.
But you may have misunderstood something I failed to bring across. Most people in in my generation, including me will have just as a bad time as yours should that crash occurs.
The only difference is my generation will only endure it for a much shorter time than yours.
FWIW, I hate everything avocado, but I will miss my bagels with cream cheese and hot chocolate with whole dairy whipped cream on top :)
People say this every year
Economists have predicted 15 out of the last 5 recessions after all.
There you go, that is the clue.
This is why I have always said every year to not have any "new years resolutions" and instead prepare for 2030. [0]
[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42563239
Perhaps the greatest buying opportunity of all time.
When all was said and done the market crashed by 89% and took 25 years to recover to the previous high.
HODL!
Reminder that we'll never see another crash like this as long as we're off the gold standard (unless the government lets it happen). We'll see recessions and depressions, but never a big sudden "crash".
However, we could end up back on a qusi-"gold" standard if people start buying stocks using crypto (something not pegged to the dollar) directly, or even tokenized assets (such as gold in a bank vault, owned via an NFT). (Neither of these are really technically possible and maybe not permitted legally yet)
We could also see the government intentionally crash the stock market (or accept a crash as a trade-off for some benefit elsewhere in the economy) as Volcker did by raising interest rates in the early 1980s.
But I wouldn't count on either of those happening. We're going to see more private equitization and the public stock market will just shrink (or inflate slower than everything else) until it reaches a new equilibrium.
... "so far."