> In November 2023, the labor force participation rate reached 62.8%
In November 2023, the prime age (25-54 years old) labor force participation rate was 83.4%.[1]
> At the same time, the labor force participation rate edged down from 62.0% in February to 61.9% in March, the lowest level since November 2021.
The prime age LFPR was 83.9% and 83.8% in February and March 2026, and 82% in November 2021.[1]
The prime age labor participation rate is just about the highest it's ever been in recorded history. The gender gap is also the lowest it's ever been.[2]
Question, are these stats based on the most recent census data for population and then reported employment numbers? If so changes in population (considerable deportations for example) might effect an assumed denominator that no longer holds. That said if the labor numbers rely on above board work, then perhaps that would not impact the numerator as much either. The methodology is important here.
Submitter here, I posted because I think there is a confluence of interesting macroeconomic factors at work here. Certainly, immigration policy is factoring into this, as the restaurant industry is highly dependent on such labor. At the same time, we're still seeing 55+ leave the labor force rapidly (~4M Boomers continue to retire per year, ~330k/month), leaving only younger prime working age cohort, which continues to shrink. At the same time, we're seeing youth unemployment around 6%, including those with a college degree [1].
As the piece mentions, young men are "staying on the sidelines" versus engage in low wage, low status restaurant work (in this context). So, who can hold out longer: businesses and industries historically underpaying workers but "desperate for them"? Or potential workers? Because as long as US immigration is constrained, as a business, you get to pick from who is on the soil at whatever that market clearing price for labor is.
[1] Young men are struggling in a slowing job market, even if they have college degrees - https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/young-men-strugglin... - August 13th, 2025 ("Men ages 23 to 30 are discovering that a bachelor's degree doesn't offer the same protection from unemployment that it used to")
leaving only younger prime working age cohort, which continues to shrink
I don't think that's literally true? There are more Millennials (~22% of US population) now than Boomers (~20%) or Gen X (~19%). Same for Gen Z (~21%).
Or do you mean that for whatever reason, Millenials aren't participating in the work force?
Millenials (and some Gen X) have the highest participation rate since 2001:
> By contrast, participation among “prime-age” workers (25–54) has held relatively steady, averaging 83.6% since January 2024 and registering 83.8% in March 2026. It hit 84.0% in January, the highest since March 2001, with the current rate just shy of that recent peak.
> The US labor force is quietly shrinking, not because of a weak economy, but because of a demographic squeeze. The population is aging, fewer younger workers are entering the workforce, and relative stability amongst prime-age workers (aged 25-54) can’t fully offset the gap. The result, according to the BLS projections, will be roughly 4.3 million fewer workers by 2034 than would be expected if participation rates held steady.
> Each year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) develops 10-year projections about the labor market. The latest projections for the decade stretching from 2024 to 2034 show a steady decline of the overall labor force participation rate (LFPR), from 62.6% in 2024 to 61.1% by 2034, a 1.5 percentage point drop over a decade. Given the size of the US labor market, that 1.5 percentage point decline represents roughly 4.3 million fewer people who are either employed or actively seeking work, relative to 2024 participation levels.
> The projections point to a demographic squeeze on the US labor market. As the population ages, workers move into older age groups where participation is lower. At the same time, fewer younger workers are entering the labor market, and prime-age participation rates decline slightly. Even with strong participation among prime-age workers and later retirements among older adults, the population is gradually shifting toward age groups with lower structural participation. The result is a slow but persistent decline in the overall LFPR.
> In November 2023, the labor force participation rate reached 62.8%
In November 2023, the prime age (25-54 years old) labor force participation rate was 83.4%.[1]
> At the same time, the labor force participation rate edged down from 62.0% in February to 61.9% in March, the lowest level since November 2021.
The prime age LFPR was 83.9% and 83.8% in February and March 2026, and 82% in November 2021.[1]
The prime age labor participation rate is just about the highest it's ever been in recorded history. The gender gap is also the lowest it's ever been.[2]
[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060
[2] https://home.treasury.gov/news/featured-stories/spotlighting...
Is it? or were a few people, lets say, put across the border.
Wouldn’t that tighten up the labor force, if true? Less pidgeons for the same number of boxes
Here it would depend on how much those boxes are paying.
Question, are these stats based on the most recent census data for population and then reported employment numbers? If so changes in population (considerable deportations for example) might effect an assumed denominator that no longer holds. That said if the labor numbers rely on above board work, then perhaps that would not impact the numerator as much either. The methodology is important here.
Submitter here, I posted because I think there is a confluence of interesting macroeconomic factors at work here. Certainly, immigration policy is factoring into this, as the restaurant industry is highly dependent on such labor. At the same time, we're still seeing 55+ leave the labor force rapidly (~4M Boomers continue to retire per year, ~330k/month), leaving only younger prime working age cohort, which continues to shrink. At the same time, we're seeing youth unemployment around 6%, including those with a college degree [1].
As the piece mentions, young men are "staying on the sidelines" versus engage in low wage, low status restaurant work (in this context). So, who can hold out longer: businesses and industries historically underpaying workers but "desperate for them"? Or potential workers? Because as long as US immigration is constrained, as a business, you get to pick from who is on the soil at whatever that market clearing price for labor is.
[1] Young men are struggling in a slowing job market, even if they have college degrees - https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/young-men-strugglin... - August 13th, 2025 ("Men ages 23 to 30 are discovering that a bachelor's degree doesn't offer the same protection from unemployment that it used to")
leaving only younger prime working age cohort, which continues to shrink
I don't think that's literally true? There are more Millennials (~22% of US population) now than Boomers (~20%) or Gen X (~19%). Same for Gen Z (~21%).
Or do you mean that for whatever reason, Millenials aren't participating in the work force?
Millenials (and some Gen X) have the highest participation rate since 2001:
> By contrast, participation among “prime-age” workers (25–54) has held relatively steady, averaging 83.6% since January 2024 and registering 83.8% in March 2026. It hit 84.0% in January, the highest since March 2001, with the current rate just shy of that recent peak.
> The US labor force is quietly shrinking, not because of a weak economy, but because of a demographic squeeze. The population is aging, fewer younger workers are entering the workforce, and relative stability amongst prime-age workers (aged 25-54) can’t fully offset the gap. The result, according to the BLS projections, will be roughly 4.3 million fewer workers by 2034 than would be expected if participation rates held steady.
> Each year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) develops 10-year projections about the labor market. The latest projections for the decade stretching from 2024 to 2034 show a steady decline of the overall labor force participation rate (LFPR), from 62.6% in 2024 to 61.1% by 2034, a 1.5 percentage point drop over a decade. Given the size of the US labor market, that 1.5 percentage point decline represents roughly 4.3 million fewer people who are either employed or actively seeking work, relative to 2024 participation levels.
> The projections point to a demographic squeeze on the US labor market. As the population ages, workers move into older age groups where participation is lower. At the same time, fewer younger workers are entering the labor market, and prime-age participation rates decline slightly. Even with strong participation among prime-age workers and later retirements among older adults, the population is gradually shifting toward age groups with lower structural participation. The result is a slow but persistent decline in the overall LFPR.
https://web.archive.org/web/20260407201640/https://d341ezm4i...
The Demographic Squeeze: Why Labor Force Participation is Projected to Fall Through 2034 - https://www.hiringlab.org/2026/04/07/why-labor-force-partici... - April 7th, 2026
Our Labor Force Demographics Are Getting Worse - https://www.aei.org/domestic-policy/our-labor-force-demograp... - January 23rd, 2026
The Rising Storm: One Year Later - https://lightcast.io/resources/blog/the-rising-storm-one-yea... - Published on Jan 15, 2026, Updated on Mar 6, 2026
The Rising Storm: Building a Future-Ready Workforce to Withstand the Looming Labor Shortage [pdf] - https://www.datocms-assets.com/62658/1761154208-the_rising_s... - 2024
(think in systems)
Flagged? Really?
In a post about labor shortages in Restaurants? We can't mention immigration?
Who do you think worked in the kitchen?