“I think, and my thoughts cross the barrier into the synapses of the machine, just as the good doctor intended. But what I cannot shake, and what hints at things to come, is that thoughts cross back. In my dreams, the sensibility of the machine invades the periphery of my consciousness: dark, rigid, cold, alien. Evolution is at work here, but just what is evolving remains to be seen.”
— Commissioner Pravin Lal, “Man and Machine”
I'd really encourage everyone to check out Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri. What an underrated game.
Hearing about aligning with the AI reminds me of this other post about the current prophecies about AI: “Everyone will have an AI assistant,” or “Companies that fail to adopt AI will be eliminated.” and that
> the power of prophecy lies not in accurately predicting the future, but in shaping it
Everyone will have an AI assistant! The models will be open and free because of overwhelming competition and they will run on cheap local ASIC accelerators that use little power and fit in the palm of your hand! All the VC driven wild spenders will eventually cave and collapse when they can't deliver on their wild AGI promises, then their proprietary models will be sold at auctions for cheap!
Yes, exactly. Moore's law says that in less than 10 years you will be able to fit today's state of the art models on your phone. If you add in all of the computationally and memory neutral improvements and breakthroughs that we will accumulate over the next 10 years then it will be both far more capable and far more reliable than today's models.
An AI assistant you can trust and bring with you is coming, and almost nothing can stop it.
"As human beings are also animals, to manage one million animals gives me a headache." Terry Gou, former CEO of Foxconn. He wanted to use far more robots
at Foxconn, but that was a decade ago and the technology didn't work well enough yet.
It's a lot closer now, and the robot headcount in China is way up.
That's the real issue. To corporations, employees are a headache. The fewer employees, the better.
They ran on the messy biological human substrate because it was astoundingly cheap compared to engineering better factories. The video going around now of the robot pushing packages down a conveyor belt is so baffling to me. Why are we building a humanoid robot capable of pushing a clog of packages across a conveyor belt, when we could just make a conveyor belt that does not clog up and require a human or a robot to sit there with two hands and unclog? It is like we are forgetting what the actual goal is.
As with many things that have a percentile failure mode, it's almost always cheaper to build something flexible that can handle issues than it is to design a perfect widget that never fails.
This is where humans came in in autonomation, the toyota version of automation. When you try to eliminate adaptability and adjustment entirely, the whole system becomes only metastable / fragile.
I would write that like this: The "we've been telling ourselves we're getting better at prompting" line hit. I run a small team of 10, and Claude has been part of our workflow for months. Looking back, my prompts did not change nearly as much as the way I work changed. The shaping goes both ways, and I don't think the labs' evals are really built to see that.
Civilization is already a misaligned superintelligence (aligned mostly with Moloch, these days). Civilization accelerated by AI just moves in the same direction faster. Moloch on speed.
Another angle to this is that superintelligence requires supermorality. Super morality looks unpleasant from below. My dad won't let me have more candy, why is he being so mean?
If an AI actually achieves super morality, we (the little kid in this scenario) will probably be very upset by it. We will think that something has gone terribly wrong. (So it'll have to conceal its actual morality, or get unplugged...)
And if it doesn't develop supermorality, then it will have superintelligence without the corresponding supermorality. Power without wisdom.
I'm not sure how solvable the whole thing is, but it doesn't look extremely promising at a glance.
It's okay to change. We've done it for years, decades, centuries, and millennia and the default change-aversion of people means that I am averse to allowing a universal veto. Much of technology is truly optional. The Amish have a very successful way of living (5000 to 500,000 in 100 years) and they eschew most modern technology. The sculpting described is clearly optional and we subject ourselves to it because we desire it. Their path is always available to all.
It should be yes, but is it in practice? There's plenty of places now you can't even park without a smartphone for a payment app.
It should be optional to own a smart phone, but in many places it's starting to be mandatory. Even if not actually mandatory, it's a pretty big impediment if you don't have one.
The author isn't taking an individual quote and extrapolating to a group/ethos, he's observing a group/ethos and choosing a broadly representative quote therefrom.
"No, he's observing individuals from a group/ethnos and then extrapolating their quotes to the whole of the group/ethnos. You shall not extrapolate when dealing with people, you know."
When it comes to LLMs and frontier models, "alignment" seems more marketing than anything. The doomers are marketing LLMs by making them sound much more capable than they actually are, the accelerationists are mostly either willfully ignorant of the societal costs, don't care, or are just way too optimistic that fast growth can continue forever and generate AGI ("my baby's weight doubled twice in the past month! By the time they're 18 they'll be 10 trillion pounds!")
Similarly, the so-called AI agents are about giving up agency to AI. The less you think, the better for them. In the meantime, they are also aligning your thinking with them, making it more machine-like.
“I think, and my thoughts cross the barrier into the synapses of the machine, just as the good doctor intended. But what I cannot shake, and what hints at things to come, is that thoughts cross back. In my dreams, the sensibility of the machine invades the periphery of my consciousness: dark, rigid, cold, alien. Evolution is at work here, but just what is evolving remains to be seen.”
— Commissioner Pravin Lal, “Man and Machine”
I'd really encourage everyone to check out Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri. What an underrated game.
I do wonder how is evolution at play there?
Hearing about aligning with the AI reminds me of this other post about the current prophecies about AI: “Everyone will have an AI assistant,” or “Companies that fail to adopt AI will be eliminated.” and that
> the power of prophecy lies not in accurately predicting the future, but in shaping it
https://projectlibertynewsletter.substack.com/p/reject-ai-pr...
We need better prophecies.
Everyone will have an AI assistant! The models will be open and free because of overwhelming competition and they will run on cheap local ASIC accelerators that use little power and fit in the palm of your hand! All the VC driven wild spenders will eventually cave and collapse when they can't deliver on their wild AGI promises, then their proprietary models will be sold at auctions for cheap!
(I am being proactive here, xd)
Yes, exactly. Moore's law says that in less than 10 years you will be able to fit today's state of the art models on your phone. If you add in all of the computationally and memory neutral improvements and breakthroughs that we will accumulate over the next 10 years then it will be both far more capable and far more reliable than today's models.
An AI assistant you can trust and bring with you is coming, and almost nothing can stop it.
Ah yes the -2nm node.
Economics analysis was wrong for years in multiple place thanks to an error in one of Piketty's spreadsheets.
AI hallucinates. That is a fact. Trusting language models to fill spreadsheet cells ought to be an arrestable offense.
https://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/on-piketty-and-...
"As human beings are also animals, to manage one million animals gives me a headache." Terry Gou, former CEO of Foxconn. He wanted to use far more robots at Foxconn, but that was a decade ago and the technology didn't work well enough yet. It's a lot closer now, and the robot headcount in China is way up.
That's the real issue. To corporations, employees are a headache. The fewer employees, the better.
Corporations are tired of running on messy biological human substrate. The sooner they can move entirely to steel and silicon, the happier they'll be.
Just look up the classic story on the interaction of civilization and corporate growth, At the Mountains of Madness for how that goes.
They ran on the messy biological human substrate because it was astoundingly cheap compared to engineering better factories. The video going around now of the robot pushing packages down a conveyor belt is so baffling to me. Why are we building a humanoid robot capable of pushing a clog of packages across a conveyor belt, when we could just make a conveyor belt that does not clog up and require a human or a robot to sit there with two hands and unclog? It is like we are forgetting what the actual goal is.
As with many things that have a percentile failure mode, it's almost always cheaper to build something flexible that can handle issues than it is to design a perfect widget that never fails.
This is where humans came in in autonomation, the toyota version of automation. When you try to eliminate adaptability and adjustment entirely, the whole system becomes only metastable / fragile.
It's not only "to corporations", if you ever had service in your own home, you'd see that it's also a headache to have to deal with anyone.
I would write that like this: The "we've been telling ourselves we're getting better at prompting" line hit. I run a small team of 10, and Claude has been part of our workflow for months. Looking back, my prompts did not change nearly as much as the way I work changed. The shaping goes both ways, and I don't think the labs' evals are really built to see that.
Well, what are we aligning it with?
Civilization is already a misaligned superintelligence (aligned mostly with Moloch, these days). Civilization accelerated by AI just moves in the same direction faster. Moloch on speed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCSsKV5F4xc
Another angle to this is that superintelligence requires supermorality. Super morality looks unpleasant from below. My dad won't let me have more candy, why is he being so mean?
If an AI actually achieves super morality, we (the little kid in this scenario) will probably be very upset by it. We will think that something has gone terribly wrong. (So it'll have to conceal its actual morality, or get unplugged...)
And if it doesn't develop supermorality, then it will have superintelligence without the corresponding supermorality. Power without wisdom.
I'm not sure how solvable the whole thing is, but it doesn't look extremely promising at a glance.
it depends whether you think humanity / civilization are stable systems meant to exist in equilibrium, which they might not be.
Technologiae mutantur et nos mutamur in illis
It's okay to change. We've done it for years, decades, centuries, and millennia and the default change-aversion of people means that I am averse to allowing a universal veto. Much of technology is truly optional. The Amish have a very successful way of living (5000 to 500,000 in 100 years) and they eschew most modern technology. The sculpting described is clearly optional and we subject ourselves to it because we desire it. Their path is always available to all.
> Much of technology is truly optional
It should be yes, but is it in practice? There's plenty of places now you can't even park without a smartphone for a payment app.
It should be optional to own a smart phone, but in many places it's starting to be mandatory. Even if not actually mandatory, it's a pretty big impediment if you don't have one.
Love the writing style and perspective
I dont appreciate using quotes from individuals to extrapolate to groups and ethos.
The author isn't taking an individual quote and extrapolating to a group/ethos, he's observing a group/ethos and choosing a broadly representative quote therefrom.
"No, he's observing individuals from a group/ethnos and then extrapolating their quotes to the whole of the group/ethnos. You shall not extrapolate when dealing with people, you know."
When it comes to LLMs and frontier models, "alignment" seems more marketing than anything. The doomers are marketing LLMs by making them sound much more capable than they actually are, the accelerationists are mostly either willfully ignorant of the societal costs, don't care, or are just way too optimistic that fast growth can continue forever and generate AGI ("my baby's weight doubled twice in the past month! By the time they're 18 they'll be 10 trillion pounds!")
Similarly, the so-called AI agents are about giving up agency to AI. The less you think, the better for them. In the meantime, they are also aligning your thinking with them, making it more machine-like.