When I see a complex socioeconomic phenomenon described as "just" I know for certain that someone is about to spectacularly fail to have read books.
This is value stream mapping. No, business process reengineering. No, systems dynamics. No, a Krebs cycle. No, ...
People could always do these things. It was never a sword that only AI enthusiasts could draw from the stone. By god people, the AI has read books, can't you give it a bash too?
I don't think the atomic task based view it the right way to draw conclusions about coming business automation. There is more likely thresholds, after which it makes sense to automate entire sections, or business processes. Creating strange hybrid working situations with Automation foisted on people, will create both the overhead of the IT systems, and the inefficiencies of people trying to deal with edgecase accuracy problems and the like, or lack of skill development paths etc.
How many times do we have to go through this? Humans invent a new technology and think it applies to everything!
Imagine the brain as a complex series of clockwork mechanisms…
Society can be modeled as a complex series of hydraulic tubes…
Companies are really a set of APIs between different departments…
Sure, these are all somewhat useful metaphors in context. But no one has built a working brain out of Lego. Sloshing water around to model an economy didn't produce unending wealth. Most companies aren't shuffling data around SOAP endpoints and winning capitalism.
Everyone seems to think AI is useful for someone else's problem, but not their own. Is a company a series of algorithms? I guess if you squint. Really it is a set of social dynamics,interpersonal relationships, and imperfect decisions.
Given that the AI companies themselves haven't replaced all their marketing departments, accountancy, and CEOs with AI - I guess the rest of us should probably wait.
To reuse part of a 15-month old comment on LLM excitement:
> How might future generations visualize this? I'm imagining some ancient Greeks, who have invented an inefficient reciprocating pump, which they declare is a heart and that means they've basically built a person. (At the time, many believed the brain was just there to cool the blood.) Look! The fluid being pumped can move a lever: It's waving to us.
Agreed that there's some measure of chaotic/creative work that won't fall into this type of category.
But much or most regular enterprise work is very much able to be done by having and regularly updating an SOP and then executing the task according to that SOP.
We suck at it. AI will be far better at it. And we'll sit above it and decide how to tweak the SOP based on taste/preference/expertise, whatever.
But the day-to-day work of handling insurance claims, doing procurement, doing analysis, creating reports, processing inputs according to some standard and producing some output according to another standard...that will largely be done by AI.
This is what makes the new /workflows feature coming to Claude Code so exciting (and frightening) to businesses. Along with Skills and Cowork and such, plus their analogs from other providers, Workflows are literally the making of opaque, alchemy-like work that Chris and Raj and Sarah do...into transparent, optimizable algorithms.
It's super hard to automate this stuff because it's super hard to articulate it. That's kind of the meta-super-power in all of this: the fact that AI is making the opaque and complex into transparent and inspectable.
I recognize all these words, I can sense, perceive, parse and reason about all of these words. Yet I cannot derive a sensible meaning from them. The pragmatics is of a flailing fish singing Waltzing Matilda to a teleporting cucumber.
There's nothing transparent or inspectable about a sparse fog of floating point numbers. Rendered as a picture it's the color of a television, tuned to a dead channel. As a sound: ksssshhhhhhhhh. If you see anything in it that you believe is a real discrete phenomenon then I have a face on Mars to sell you.
You know what is an inspectable algorithm? An algorithm. The old-fashioned kind that were intensional and not gigantic quasi-extensional stews connected to nervous cats in boxes. I'm so tired of this madness. So entirely bloody exhausted. Out of all the manias I've lived through in this trade the current one is by far the most absurd, wasteful and destructive.
> AI excels at both discrete task execution and determining how things fit together, and every single one of your company's workflow components becomes ripe for optimization or elimination.
Why? On what basis is this claim made? They're trained to probabilistically complete patterns. Where does the confidence in this ability come from?
When I see a complex socioeconomic phenomenon described as "just" I know for certain that someone is about to spectacularly fail to have read books.
This is value stream mapping. No, business process reengineering. No, systems dynamics. No, a Krebs cycle. No, ...
People could always do these things. It was never a sword that only AI enthusiasts could draw from the stone. By god people, the AI has read books, can't you give it a bash too?
I don't think the atomic task based view it the right way to draw conclusions about coming business automation. There is more likely thresholds, after which it makes sense to automate entire sections, or business processes. Creating strange hybrid working situations with Automation foisted on people, will create both the overhead of the IT systems, and the inefficiencies of people trying to deal with edgecase accuracy problems and the like, or lack of skill development paths etc.
How many times do we have to go through this? Humans invent a new technology and think it applies to everything!
Imagine the brain as a complex series of clockwork mechanisms…
Society can be modeled as a complex series of hydraulic tubes…
Companies are really a set of APIs between different departments…
Sure, these are all somewhat useful metaphors in context. But no one has built a working brain out of Lego. Sloshing water around to model an economy didn't produce unending wealth. Most companies aren't shuffling data around SOAP endpoints and winning capitalism.
Everyone seems to think AI is useful for someone else's problem, but not their own. Is a company a series of algorithms? I guess if you squint. Really it is a set of social dynamics,interpersonal relationships, and imperfect decisions.
Given that the AI companies themselves haven't replaced all their marketing departments, accountancy, and CEOs with AI - I guess the rest of us should probably wait.
To reuse part of a 15-month old comment on LLM excitement:
> How might future generations visualize this? I'm imagining some ancient Greeks, who have invented an inefficient reciprocating pump, which they declare is a heart and that means they've basically built a person. (At the time, many believed the brain was just there to cool the blood.) Look! The fluid being pumped can move a lever: It's waving to us.
Agreed that there's some measure of chaotic/creative work that won't fall into this type of category.
But much or most regular enterprise work is very much able to be done by having and regularly updating an SOP and then executing the task according to that SOP.
We suck at it. AI will be far better at it. And we'll sit above it and decide how to tweak the SOP based on taste/preference/expertise, whatever.
But the day-to-day work of handling insurance claims, doing procurement, doing analysis, creating reports, processing inputs according to some standard and producing some output according to another standard...that will largely be done by AI.
This is what makes the new /workflows feature coming to Claude Code so exciting (and frightening) to businesses. Along with Skills and Cowork and such, plus their analogs from other providers, Workflows are literally the making of opaque, alchemy-like work that Chris and Raj and Sarah do...into transparent, optimizable algorithms.
It's super hard to automate this stuff because it's super hard to articulate it. That's kind of the meta-super-power in all of this: the fact that AI is making the opaque and complex into transparent and inspectable.
I recognize all these words, I can sense, perceive, parse and reason about all of these words. Yet I cannot derive a sensible meaning from them. The pragmatics is of a flailing fish singing Waltzing Matilda to a teleporting cucumber.
There's nothing transparent or inspectable about a sparse fog of floating point numbers. Rendered as a picture it's the color of a television, tuned to a dead channel. As a sound: ksssshhhhhhhhh. If you see anything in it that you believe is a real discrete phenomenon then I have a face on Mars to sell you.
You know what is an inspectable algorithm? An algorithm. The old-fashioned kind that were intensional and not gigantic quasi-extensional stews connected to nervous cats in boxes. I'm so tired of this madness. So entirely bloody exhausted. Out of all the manias I've lived through in this trade the current one is by far the most absurd, wasteful and destructive.
> AI excels at both discrete task execution and determining how things fit together, and every single one of your company's workflow components becomes ripe for optimization or elimination.
Why? On what basis is this claim made? They're trained to probabilistically complete patterns. Where does the confidence in this ability come from?