The fundamental issue is that for these systems bigger is essentially always better (if affordable). So if we can squash something like Kimi K3 down to run on a 'normal' system, that just incentivizes devs to increase the model size until once again we're at the limit of what can be run.
Hyperscalers are screwed, data center mania couldn’t even be completed during this massive spending spree, all while the people seemingly sitting on the sidelines are working on getting these things baked into the OS and chipsets in a way consumers wouldn’t notice
If the golden stick of memory sitting on Trumps desk has its intended effect - and the US allow Apple to buy memory from CXMT then another 500% surge might happen.
I have nothing to say about this company's long term potential, but I'm curious to know whether this will become an enormous "tik stok" like SK Hynix became in South Korea. I've watched a short documentary about the investment mania in SK and it's really scary.
The more interesting question is: why does the rest of the world not increase their production prowess? I am aware of most of the reasons, but I am getting tired of the "China is better than the rest of the world". It is more that China did a lot of things that the others either failed to do or no longer wanted to do. Case in point is Germany: from "our cars are best" to "hey, chinese cars are now better" (or, cheaper, for a comparative quality). This constant complaining is so strange. Would that energy not be better spent to try to become better?
It is because in the west we suffer from self inflicted obstacles that make it impossible to get out of our own way. The Chinese gov must think they are playing on easy mode.
Because the capitalist west doesn't have strategic view, beside maybe on the defense sector.
Everything else must produce profits next quarter not in the next 3 years.
> Would that energy not be better spent to try to become better?
The problem is, shareholders have bled Western companies dry in the chase for returns on investments. There is no money left in the companies to retool them to be competitive with China.
Meanwhile, the CCP just pours dollars into their companies.
Unfortunately, there is no punishment in Western societies if you run a company into the ground as long as you pay your debts on the way out.
Prediction - we are going to figure out SOTA AI performance without requiring 1TB of memory within a year or so.
Of course CXMT, Micron, and family will still be profitable, but maybe not 'surge 470% from IPO' profitable.
And by the time the models that require 1TB memory will be better.
It's like people saying mobile chips are going to be better than PC chips... until they realize PC can be made by mobile chips too if that comes true.
The fundamental issue is that for these systems bigger is essentially always better (if affordable). So if we can squash something like Kimi K3 down to run on a 'normal' system, that just incentivizes devs to increase the model size until once again we're at the limit of what can be run.
What do you base this prediction on? It seems very unlikely, unless by SOTA you mean the current SOTA.
that would be perfect timing
Hyperscalers are screwed, data center mania couldn’t even be completed during this massive spending spree, all while the people seemingly sitting on the sidelines are working on getting these things baked into the OS and chipsets in a way consumers wouldn’t notice
EU chip industry: best I can do is eat glue in the corner.
EU: we should create a law regulating the viscosity of the glue being eaten
EU chip industry: best I can do is power electronics.
If the golden stick of memory sitting on Trumps desk has its intended effect - and the US allow Apple to buy memory from CXMT then another 500% surge might happen.
I have nothing to say about this company's long term potential, but I'm curious to know whether this will become an enormous "tik stok" like SK Hynix became in South Korea. I've watched a short documentary about the investment mania in SK and it's really scary.
If the chinese government feels its critical to china's success then it will be backed like alibaba and wechat and others were
Tesla is kind the same. Everybody bought it, because it went up so much, less because of the product. I guess every AI would do the same.
I wonder what the effects of TSLA dropping to reasonable levels (a drop of about 90%) would look like.
The more interesting question is: why does the rest of the world not increase their production prowess? I am aware of most of the reasons, but I am getting tired of the "China is better than the rest of the world". It is more that China did a lot of things that the others either failed to do or no longer wanted to do. Case in point is Germany: from "our cars are best" to "hey, chinese cars are now better" (or, cheaper, for a comparative quality). This constant complaining is so strange. Would that energy not be better spent to try to become better?
50 years ago you could ask the same question about Europe, the USA and Japan: why are they so much more productive than everyone else?
So others did spend energy on becoming better and now you see a different picture when you look at the world.
It is because in the west we suffer from self inflicted obstacles that make it impossible to get out of our own way. The Chinese gov must think they are playing on easy mode.
Because the capitalist west doesn't have strategic view, beside maybe on the defense sector. Everything else must produce profits next quarter not in the next 3 years.
> Would that energy not be better spent to try to become better?
The problem is, shareholders have bled Western companies dry in the chase for returns on investments. There is no money left in the companies to retool them to be competitive with China.
Meanwhile, the CCP just pours dollars into their companies.
Unfortunately, there is no punishment in Western societies if you run a company into the ground as long as you pay your debts on the way out.
Let’s see them ship some chip first
> 8% to 9% of the worldwide DRAM market share in 2025
how much more do they need to ship to satisfy you?
The price is similar, as they all rely on same upstream suppliers. The quality is kinda meh.
They don't have access to EUV machines from ASML though.
is it retail or hype driven - that's the question
It's driven by the supreme leader's grand plan, like everything else there.