And various dedicated AI models all made poor predictions of the results of that experiment, which casts doubts about the value of the AlphaGenome predictive map.
A virus is much simpler than a human, but even for that simple virus the effects of most of the mutations could not be predicted. A half of the mutations had harmful effects, and for a half of those it is unknown for now why they were harmful.
For a human the uncertainty about the effects of a mutation will be far greater than for one of the simplest viruses.
this is literally not possible. while I'm excited for these kinds of things, alphafold is already imperfect, and this basically side-steps actual structural predictions. it sounds good, but frankly biology is not there yet. in practice not even alpha fold can tell me if my gfp fusion will work...
If you like that abstract geometric headline image, you might also like the source artist their model “learned” it from: https://leegriggs.com/xgen-rendered-with-arnold-for-maya
Meanwhile someone went and did the experiment on the equivalent problem in a virus: https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/mutate-em-all-and-...
And various dedicated AI models all made poor predictions of the results of that experiment, which casts doubts about the value of the AlphaGenome predictive map.
A virus is much simpler than a human, but even for that simple virus the effects of most of the mutations could not be predicted. A half of the mutations had harmful effects, and for a half of those it is unknown for now why they were harmful.
For a human the uncertainty about the effects of a mutation will be far greater than for one of the simplest viruses.
the catch with a genome-wide map is the benchmark labels came from conservation, so you can't tell prediction from re-reading the prior.
> benchmark labels came from conservation
And from human disease...?
this is literally not possible. while I'm excited for these kinds of things, alphafold is already imperfect, and this basically side-steps actual structural predictions. it sounds good, but frankly biology is not there yet. in practice not even alpha fold can tell me if my gfp fusion will work...
Some more discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49611251